Poll shows importance of letter behind the name

  Brawner

If anybody needed further evidence of Republicans’ dominance of Arkansas politics, the latest Talk Business & Politics-Hendrix College poll provides it. At the same time, if non-Republicans are looking for a glimmer of hope for the future, they can find one.

The poll of 696 likely voters conducted via text message Sept. 5-6 found that in the presidential election, former President Donald Trump was leading Vice President Kamala Harris, 55 percent to 40 percent. In the state treasurer’s race, Republican Secretary of State John Thurston was leading Democrat John Pagan 48 percent to 31 percent, with Libertarian Michael Pakko at 3 percent.

None of this is surprising. Republicans have dominated Arkansas politics since 2012. The last time a Democrat topped 40 percent in a statewide race was 2014. The Biden/Harris ticket got less than 35 percent in 2020.

Meanwhile, in the only other statewide race, for Arkansas Supreme Court chief justice, Justice Karen Baker was leading Justice Rhonda Wood, 19 percent to 11 percent with 70 percent undecided.

Of the two, Wood is generally considered the more “Republican,” though it’s a nonpartisan race. Her website says she has a “conservative judicial philosophy.” She has made appearances before Republican groups, although from what I’ve seen, I’m confident she would happily speak to Democrats, too.

I don’t know what label would fit Baker. In February when I asked the candidates what U.S. Supreme Court justice they most closely aligned with, she cited John Roberts, the chief justice who tends to be more pragmatic and consensus-building than some of the other justices have been. Wood declined to pick a justice, saying it would suggest “political ideology rather than judicial philosophy.”

The two were on opposite sides of one of the court’s recent high-profile cases, the 4-3 decision that kept off the ballot a citizen-led proposed amendment legalizing abortion. Wood affirmed a decision by Thurston to block the measure based on what he said were signature-gathering violations. Baker dissented, saying the law didn’t require what Thurston and Wood said it required.

That doesn’t mean that Wood is a pro-life justice while Baker is a pro-choice justice. It was an election law case. Still, Republicans and conservatives cheered Wood.

Incidentally, Baker is not really running a campaign. She hasn’t raised money, isn’t making many appearances and doesn’t even have a website. It appears her mindset is to put her name on the ballot and let voters decide.

The three statewide races together might demonstrate how much a party label means these days.

The presidential race is so high-profile that few voters will be undecided. Indeed, only 2 percent were in the poll. In contrast, few voters know much about the state treasurer, who serves as the state’s banker and manages the state’s investments, and few follow the Supreme Court closely. It’s seven people in black robes making decisions behind closed doors.

Thurston is the conservative candidate in the treasurer’s race, and he’s at 48 percent. Wood is the more conservative candidate in the chief justice race, and she’s at 11 percent. Both helped keep the abortion amendment off the ballot.

Why the polling difference? It could be that when voters were asked who they supported, they explicitly were told that Thurston was the Republican by the letter “R” beside his name. But Wood was not given a letter or a party label. She doesn’t have one.

I should point out that Thurston also was described by pollsters as the secretary of state, and titles tend to be an advantage on a ballot.

Still, Pagan, the Democrat with the “D” beside his name, polled at 31 percent in the treasurer’s race, which is consistent with where Democrats have polled statewide in recent years.

I mentioned there was a glimmer of hope for non-Republicans, which is they were doing better among younger voters. Harris led Trump with 53 percent among the 30-44 age group, which was 18.5% of those surveyed. Pagan also had a sizable lead in that age group in the treasurer’s race. Pakko, the Libertarian, had a slight lead among the under 30 age group, which was 5.5 percent of those surveyed.

Democrats and other non-Republicans can reasonably infer that they might do better in future elections when today’s younger voters compose a greater percentage of the electorate and some of the old conservatives are gone.

On the other hand, it’s not uncommon for young liberals to become old conservatives. I guess time will tell.

••• Steve Brawner is a syndicated columnist published in 17 outlets in Arkansas. Email him at brawnersteve@mac.com.