Politics at lunch

“One-ninety-five,” he announced.

The last time we saw him, which was the last time our little lunch bunch broke bread together, he was at 215 “or thereabouts,” and resolved to get to “180, maybe 185.” That would be acceptable, no, on a 6-2 frame?

He’s the finance guy of the group, the stockbroker who prefers “financial counselor” or “investment adviser.” And who would prefer to stay alive at least long enough to see that new kid on the block, his first grandchild, get married. At his age it might be a stretch, but the actuarial tables are less forbidding with every pound he sheds.

His weight isn’t his only change. That was her now, on one of the wall-mounted flat screen TVs: Nicki Haley.

“The only one who makes any sense,” our buddy said.

Previously Ron DeSantis had made sense to him, as had Haley’s fellow South Carolinian, Tim Scott, who abandoned his campaign weeks ago. Arkansas’ Asa Hutchinson had made sense to him, too, as had New Jersey’s Chris Christie, but as he said back then, “Asa can’t survive” against a MAGA-fied Republican base that’s loyal to Fulton County, Georgia prisoner No. P01135809. Christie? “Fat and ugly.” Couldn’t win even if he survived the MAGA-fied Republican base.

“He’s going soft on us,” joked our tablemate, the one I refer to as Big D Democrat, pointing his salad fork at the stockbroker-counselor-adviser, who had declared the previous president infinitely preferable to 2016’s Democratic nominee. He would have preferred just about anyone to Hillary, but Big D had a point: Our financier friend’s enthusiasm for the GOP nominee seven years ago had always seemed contrived, and as the winner’s term went on his approval seemed increasingly strained. By the time the present cycle began in earnest he was openly searching for an alternative to P01135809.

He isn’t alone. The impersonator from Florida, according to polling and seasoned observers on the ground, is collapsing in Iowa, where he has staked his viability, and is floundering in New Hampshire. The previous president is still heavily favored to win the delegates of both states early next year, but isn’t it interesting that he and the other GOP candidates are all aiming their fire at Haley?

The retired federal agency manager, feeling the freedom of political expression that retirement from federal employ can bring, nodded in agreement with the broker. Essentially a moderate, he had made clear years ago that he had voted for Biden, as he had for Hillary four years prior. And some Republican votes in the decades prior. Now he seemed to be speaking for untold numbers of independent, swing voters (though there aren’t that many in Arkansas) and not a few Democrats.

“I worry that he’s not up to it,” he said, referring to the incumbent, who is 81. “Or that he won’t even survive” another term.

We were at table on the day the Dow hit a record high, as it would on each of the following two days. The Fed holding steady on interest rates helped, sure, but stocks overall had been smoking for weeks, months, and with inflation cooling and gas prices at well below three bucks a gallon in much of the country, the Biden team ought to be riding high in the polls. It isn’t.

“They can’t even convince anyone it’s December,” said a visibly frustrated Big D, complaining, not for the first time, that a White House of his own party has the least effective communications shop since the Carter presidency.

Cue the other broker among us, this one in the insurance game.

“I worry that it’s too hot,” he said, referring not to the polls of public sentiment in the presidential contest but to the overall economy. And those deficits, adding to debt that’s now past $33 trillion … “If there’s a bust, it’s gonna be a big bust,” he warned.

“I don’t think we’re gonna bust,” replied our former federal supervisor. “And I don’t think your Ms. Haley…” he looked across the table at the stockbroker “ … is gonna go the distance. There’s too much of it.” Distance, that is.

Stockbroker shrugged. “Probably not.” And she surely won’t win any Arkansas delegates, because “Sarah …” He meant, of course, the governor, a former employee of the previous president, and who has endorsed him for a second term “ … will make sure there’s no room for anyone else.”

“She needs him more than he needs her,” said Big D, smirking.

“I agree,” the broker answered, almost nonchalantly. “But the odd thing, it seems to me, is that neither of ’em really needs the other, not right now.”

Most of us had to get back to work. We said “Merry Christmas” to one another, and meant it. As I recall, we left off the “Happy New Year.” Possibly from fear.