A debate, then?

Steve Barnes

Asa Hutchinson won a space on the Wisconsin debate platform. That he can win anything else in the current presidential election cycle — anything other than the respect of the shrunken minority of moderate Republican voters — seems wishful thinking.

With some fanfare two days earlier did the former Arkansas governor announce that he had met the criteria set forth by the Republican National Committee for participation in the first meeting of the 2024 hopefuls, the Fox News cattle show in Milwaukee.

Hutchinson had been an early critic of a debate protocol which, if not engineered to benefit the immediate past president, certainly posed no obstacle to him. To secure a spot on the stage required a candidate to register at least 1 percent support in a handful of national and/or state polls gauging Republican preferences. But there was as well a financial threshold: Prospective nominees had to have donations from 40,000 contributors, with no fewer than 200 from each state. For Donald Trump, a snap, an easy lift.

Oh — there was one other stipulation from above: To be allowed on stage, a candidate would have to pledge in writing to support the eventual Republican nominee. Hutchinson had initially rebelled against that demand, too, but the lure of jousting with other contestants on national television proved too great. Besides, Hutchinson rationalized, Trump won’t be the party’s nominee.

Perhaps he won’t be, Trump. But the evidence at this stage strongly suggests to the contrary, no matter the four sets of federal and state criminal charges lodged against him, indictments that appear only to strengthen his hold on what seems less and less a political party than a, yes, personality cult.

Barely a day after Hutchinson claimed for himself a slot in the Wisconsin debate, there arrived a new measure of Republican sentiment in Iowa, where the first delegates to the GOP nominating convention will be chosen. By a two-to-one margin, Trump leads Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, his nearest challenger and the only other GOP candidate to score in double digits. Hutchinson was at 1 percent, about where he’s been recorded in other polls elsewhere.

The firm that performed the research was careful to note the “unsettled” nature of the Iowa political landscape, that a majority — a slim one — of the state’s likely Republican caucus participants said they might be persuaded to switch from Trump to another candidate. With courtroom battles pending up and down the eastern seaboard for Trump, it’s difficult to conceive what might shake loose his supporters in Iowa, or anywhere else.

On multiple occasions Hutchinson has said he wants to help steer his party away from Trump, move it more toward the center while adhering to a traditionalist set of conservative values. The poll data in that regard is no more encouraging than the numbers coming out of Iowa, and they underscore the devotion of the Trump base. Do they ever.

Newly released research conducted for CBS News, about which Trump is not likely to find fault, indicates the former president has an even larger claim on the affections of Republican voters nationally than he does on their Iowa caucus. His lead over DeSantis stretches to nearly 50 percentage points. By an almost identical margin, Trump is favored over DeSantis by likely GOP voters who say “honesty” is “very important” in their choice of nominee.

With such wind beneath his wings, it was no surprise that Trump thumbed his nose at the Fox network and its Wisconsin program, the better to sit for a chat with Tucker Carlson, his de facto press secretary.

It is early, yes, but not too: Hutchinson and the other contenders have five months to change the dynamic. Only five.